1、 Analysis of supply and demand of bauxite in China
In 2018, China's alumina production capacity is about 88 million tons, and the output is about 72 million tons, accounting for 59.8% of the total global output in that year. The bauxite output is about 100 million tons, accounting for 30% of the global output, which is the largest country in the world in terms of bauxite and alumina production. However, by the end of 2017, China's bauxite reserves have been 5.13 billion tons, of which only 970 million tons are economically significant and exploitable, accounting for about 19% of the country's proven resource reserves, accounting for only 3.2% of the global total bauxite reserves. According to the calculation of recoverable reserves, China's bauxite static guarantee period is less than 10 years, and the resource reserves and bauxite output are seriously unbalanced. China is relatively short of bauxite resources, and alumina production relies on imported ore. In 2018, the imported bauxite accounts for about 41% of the total domestic ore supply. In addition, due to the shortage of domestic ore supply caused by China's environmental protection policy, alumina plants in inland areas have begun to adjust production lines to adapt to imported ore, and overseas investment of Chinese aluminum enterprises has gradually increased. However, considering the regional and technological characteristics of China's inland alumina plants, the high cost of raw material transportation will lead to the application of imported ore in the inland alumina plants is difficult to have a good economy. It is predicted that in the next 5-10 years, China's inland alumina production will maintain the development trend of inland ore consumption dominated and imported ore supplemented appropriately, and the supply of domestic bauxite will also remain tight.
2、 Analysis of the characteristics of bauxite in China
Bauxite resources in China are highly concentrated, mainly distributed in Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou and Guangxi, accounting for about 94% of the total amount of the country. Among them, Shanxi bauxite has a good grade and the mining volume is increasing year by year. With the acceleration of bauxite mining, the ore aluminum silicon ratio is getting lower and lower, and the supply of bauxite is tight. Henan is a big province of old bauxite mining. Bauxite is concentrated in Sanmenxia, Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Jiaozuo and other places, with a grade of about 60%. At present, the bauxite resources in Henan Province are seriously damaged, and the mine non-compliance is frequent. Therefore, Henan Province suspended the construction and expansion of mining projects, focused on improving the mine environment, so that the bauxite shortage situation continued to intensify. The bauxite resources in Guangxi are relatively shallow, with a grade of 52% - 58%, a high alumina silica ratio, and a mining cost advantage. Although the mining volume is lower than that in Shanxi and Henan, the mining volume increases year by year, and the future mining volume will further increase; Guizhou is rich in bauxite reserves, with an average grade of more than 60%. Some of the grade in Qingzhen area is more than 70%. However, due to the limitation of alumina supporting, the bauxite output is relatively low at present. However, with the development of high sulfur ore processing technology, Guizhou also has great mining potential.
3、 Application prospect of domestic bauxite and analysis of competitiveness of aluminum enterprises
Although the reserves of bauxite resources in China are relatively scarce, more than 90% of the world's high-grade bauxite are concentrated in China. At present, the new bauxite resources in China have the characteristics of high aluminum and high sulfur. Therefore, the future application of this part of bauxite also has a profound impact on the development pattern of domestic aluminum industry.
First of all, the domestic academic institutions have carried out a lot of research and experiments in ore desulfurization technology. At present, high sulfur beneficiation technology includes ore flotation, roasting pre desulfurization and solution desulfurization, among which ore flotation, roasting desulfurization technology has begun to meet the conditions of industrialization. With the acceleration of industrialization of ore desulfurization technology, high sulfur ores such as Guizhou high sulfur ore and Henan coal aluminum ore will be effectively utilized, and the guarantee period of China's bauxite resources will be extended for more than 10 years, which will provide a strong raw material guarantee for China's inland alumina plant, with a promising future.
Secondly, in addition to the traditional production of metallurgical grade alumina and aluminum hydroxide series, High Alumina ore (AO ≥ 70%) has a very wide range of applications, and is extremely scarce in the world, most of which are concentrated in China, mainly distributed in Xiaoyi of Shanxi Province and Guiyang of Guizhou Province. With the rapid development of China's iron and steel, military industry, instruments and meters, machinery, fine chemical industry and other industries, the demand for fire-resistant, wear-resistant materials, precision casting powder, fire-resistant fiber, ceramic materials, catalysts, etc. is also growing rapidly. The grinding grade and fire-resistant grade bauxite clinker produced by calcining and processing of high alumina bauxite in the clinker kiln is an indispensable raw material in the production process of these materials, so The demand for high-grade bauxite is also growing rapidly, and the sulfur content in the ore can be removed after the clinker kiln is calcined. A large number of high-grade bauxite that cannot be applied in the production process of Bayer process alumina can also have good development and utilization prospects. With the gradual slowdown of aluminum consumption, the demand for metallurgical grade alumina is gradually saturated, and the production capacity of metallurgical grade alumina is also gradually saturated. However, aluminum industry enterprises with high aluminum ore resources can research and develop the application of chemical alumina and bauxite clinker, so that they can move forward and backward freely in the market competition.
At present, there are national industrial upgrading policies outside the aluminum industry, and there are serious overcapacity caused by disorderly investment inside. The high-speed growth of traditional aluminum industry is difficult to reproduce again, and low-end and high-cost capacity will gradually withdraw from the market under the dual influence of policies and market. Therefore, abundant ore resources and low production cost will become the two core competitiveness of aluminum industry enterprises. Among the domestic enterprises, in addition to Chinalco, GAC and SDIC hold most of the medium and high-grade aluminum resources in the country, and have a low-cost industrial chain layout. they